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Re: Predictions for the new century (a head start)
Posted By: shadowfax, on host 206.191.194.208
Date: Friday, December 1, 2000, at 23:52:41
In Reply To: Re: Predictions for the new century (a head start) posted by MissyClar on Friday, December 1, 2000, at 20:20:46:

> A small comment...I think we're all forgetting that computer can be extremely unreliable, and in the end, it's very rare that human drivers will freeze up, crash, or go beserk, while all of these things are very common with your average, run of the mill computer...I don't think that technology will ever be good enough that we can put the control of huge, potentially fatal machines (cars) completely in the hands of computers, especially at the speeds you're proposing.

well actually, computers are extremely reliable. it's the software (specifically Windows in many cases) that causes crashes, freezes, etc. Also, computers are already in control of those huge, potentially fatal machines. In fact, they're in control of machines that dwarf even an 18-wheeler in size and killing ability. . . .

For example, did you know that Airbus passenger jetliners are computer controlled? There are no cables going from the control stick to the rudders/ailerons. It's all electronic, AND the computer reviews what the pilot does and determines whether or not it's safe to do before allowing the command to take place. i.e. if the plane is flying low and the pilot jams the stick forward to pitch down, the computer won't permit the action because it'd cause a crash.

The F117A and B2 stealth planes (and to lesser degrees various other military aircraft) are completely computer controlled- - - They have negative stability, which means they do not tend to remain straight and level without constant control inputs - - -but a human couldn't make the inputs fast enough because human reaction times aren't quick enough for the speed in which the plane destabilizes. So the computers actually fly the plane, not the pilot.

Your car already uses several computers. The engine computer runs everything from fuel/air ratio handling to engine timing (if this goes wrong your engine can self destruct), etc, and your cruise control is also a rudimentary computer. Very few engine computers or cruise controls fail due to computer error.

My point in all this is that computers are really very reliable machines until people install stuff like windows on them. The only reason our desktop computers are so buggy is because the code in windows and our applications is buggy - -because it's not thoroughly tested. This isn't the case for other computers. There's an old adage that isn't used very much any more (probably because software programmers would get angry and hurt you for saying it ;) : Computers don't make mistakes. people using them make the mistakes.






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> > Cars will no longer be piloted by people, but by computers. This will not be the choice of people, of course, but once the technology exists to make it possible, the law will require it. People are so busy using cell phones, laptops, the internet, TV's, making out, eating, and doing all sorts of other things when they should be driving that they won't have time for actually driving, so the task will have to be automated or risk even worse accident statistics than we have today. This will result in a loss of personal control, which I will hate personally because i love driving and everything about it, but it will also result in a much higher rate of travel (100-200mph at times) because without people to muck it up, the computer can pilot the cars perfectly safely at such high speeds.
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