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Re: Predictions for the new century (a head start)
Posted By: Stephen, on host 216.98.147.149
Date: Friday, December 1, 2000, at 12:10:25
In Reply To: Predictions for the new century (a head start) posted by Howard on Wednesday, November 29, 2000, at 11:23:31:

> Did I leave anything out? Do you have any other ideas?

I think it will be rather difficult to make any predictions on what will be happening as technology is moving extraordinarily fast.

The next century will the be the first one where he have the potential for real genetic engineering. How will this affect us? Genetically engineered foods could help end world hunger, but they don't really solve the distribution problems that are the root of the larger problem today. Imagining a Gattaca-esque society where humans are quite regularly engineered isn't very difficult, but how will it really change us a species?

Consider also technologies about which we are even less certain. How quickly will we have working nanotechnology? The ability to manipulate reality at the very smallest scales presents a staggering number of possibilities (many of which are very problematic). Since we really can't say what the limits are in this field, it's hard to say how it could change things. What if we could control the aging process, stop all diseases and essentially grant immortality to anyone with sufficient nanotech?

You could also look at simple extensions of current technology. Imagine an internet that offers 100% unbreakable encryption (it's rather likely that we'll have quantum encryption on a mass scale relatively soon) and also the possiblity for total anonymity. What happens when any bank in the world can issue its own digital currency that can be used online? What affect would this have on governments who rely upon their ability to track income for taxation? Imagine if all of your money was off-shore and totally hidden from the IRS, and that you could make all your purchases with the same money. It would be rather difficult for anyone to tax you for money they couldn't prove you had. Of course, property could still be taxed, but what would the ramifications be of a system where property was the main source of government income?

The inherent problem is that technology expands at an exponential rate, making it very difficult to perceive where it's heading next.

Ste "Or maybe I've just been reading too much Neal Stephenson lately" phen